Insiders
A tool for detecting insider trading on prediction markets. Ingests trade data from Polymarket and Kalshi APIs, scores accounts on behavioral signals, and attempts to surface accounts which appear to be actively trading on insider info.
The premise
Prediction markets are inherent targets for those with proprietary information looking to make a buck. They are also fairly transparent. If you can identify these accounts with some degree of confidence, just from the public trade data, you can profitably enter into positions alongside them. In theory.
What it does today
Pulls resolved market data and trade histories from Polymarket and Kalshi and runs an analysis on every account that's traded across enough markets to be statistically meaningful.
These get evaluated and given a composite score representing likelihood of being an insider, with the tool flagging accounts that exhibit multiple suspicious signals at once (i.e. high win rate + size skew + consistent early entry).
Where this is going
The endgame would be a system that watches the order flow, detects informed activity in real time, and generates trade signals. If you can reliably identify when insiders are entering a market, you can follow them before the price fully adjusts.
Status
- Brainstorming ways to get around API limits on historical trades (i.e. PolyMarket at 3,500)
- Core pipeline works end-to-end: fetch data, store, analyze, provide a rudimentary report.